Every hypothesis gets tested until it breaks or proves itself. Both results get published.
PAPER · PRE-REGISTERED
The End-of-Day Reversal After 2019: What a Pre-Registered Test Found
A published anomaly, sample ending 2019: intraday losers beat intraday winners in the last half hour. We tested it on 2020–2026 under a pre-registration written before the run, on S&P 500 stocks minus the heavily traded names we had already seen. It is still there. It depends on the window, the end point and the sample, and the paper shows where.
Indicators· updated 2026-11-06 22:30 UTC
All indicators →3-month bill
4.19%
+0.02 pp today
2-year yield
4.51%
+0.05 pp today
10-year yield
4.86%
+0.02 pp today
30-year yield
5.26%
+0.01 pp today
10y − 2y curve
0.35 pp
-0.03 pp today
10y − 3m curve
0.67 pp
0.00 pp today
Fed funds rate
3.88%
0.00 pp today
10-year real yield
2.60%
-0.04 pp today
VIX
28.18
+69.7% today
Dollar (Fed index)
121.67
-0.1% today
WTI crude
$99.64
-0.4% today
Latest writing
MACRO · 2008
Homebuilders Lost 62% While the S&P 500 Hit a Record. That's How 2008 Really Started.
Research note
On the day the S&P 500 set its 2007 record, the six big homebuilders were already down 62% and $283 billion of short-term funding had vanished. I lined up 38 prices by the date each one peaked. The crash rolled outward from mortgages for 27 months, and the order is measurable.
PAPER · SSRN
A Thermometer, Not an Analyst: Six Gates Before a Text Model Touches a Trading Lab
Research note
A text model can read headlines beside a trading system the way a thermometer sits beside a patient: it reads, it never prescribes. Six gates it had to pass first, the one line it never crosses, and all 22 times it was used, failures included.
PAPER · PRE-REGISTERED
The End-of-Day Reversal After 2019: What a Pre-Registered Test Found
Research note
A published anomaly, sample ending 2019: intraday losers beat intraday winners in the last half hour. We tested it on 2020–2026 under a pre-registration written before the run, on S&P 500 stocks minus the heavily traded names we had already seen. It is still there. It depends on the window, the end point and the sample, and the paper shows where.
PAPER · SSRN
Six Ways Our Backtest Lied to Us — and None of Them Showed in the Results
Research note
Six implementation defects caught by replaying live days through the backtest: a thin data feed, adjusted prices, a runaway sizing step, a UTC clock, missing inputs, dead config. None showed in the results. Each now has a test.
MACRO · JAPAN
The Yen Carry Trade Explained: Why One Small Rate Hike in Tokyo Can Crash US Stocks
Research note
In 2024 a crowded yen trade turned a small Tokyo hike and one weak US jobs report into the Nikkei's worst day since 1987. It unwound in two weeks, then got rebuilt. How the trade works, why the exit is violent, and what the September 2026 Fed and BoJ meetings did to it.
PAPER · SSRN
New Paper: The Protocol That Cuts Backtest False Positives from 37% to 0.4%
Research note
The validation machinery behind every note on this site, written up properly: a failure-mode taxonomy, a Monte Carlo of both error types, and a new pre-registrable criterion. Free on SSRN, simulation code included.
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