Indicators
One page of numbers.
Updated 2026-11-06 22:30 UTC
Rates
| Indicator | Current | Daily change | Monthly change | Yearly change | 1-year trend | 10-year range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US 3-month Treasury bill Cash yield. Tracks the Fed's policy rate most closely. U.S. Department of the Treasury | 4.19% | +0.02 pp | -0.03 pp | +0.23 pp | 71 | |
US 2-year Treasury yield Where the market thinks the Fed is heading. U.S. Department of the Treasury | 4.51% | +0.05 pp | -0.26 pp | +0.93 pp | 88 | |
US 10-year Treasury yield Cost of long-term money. Rising yields press on stock valuations. U.S. Department of the Treasury | 4.86% | +0.02 pp | -0.42 pp | +0.76 pp | 98 | |
US 30-year Treasury yield The long end: mortgages, pensions, the price of patience. U.S. Department of the Treasury | 5.26% | +0.01 pp | -0.41 pp | +0.59 pp | 98 | |
10-year minus 2-year Below zero has come before past recessions. The climb back above zero has often come near the start of one. U.S. Department of the Treasury | 0.35 pp | -0.03 pp | -0.16 pp | -0.17 pp | 49 | |
10-year minus 3-month The Fed's preferred recession gauge. Same reading, shorter anchor. U.S. Department of the Treasury | 0.67 pp | 0.00 pp | -0.39 pp | +0.53 pp | 57 | |
Effective federal funds rate The overnight rate the Fed actually steers. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED (DFF) | 3.88% | 0.00 pp | 0.00 pp | +0.24 pp | 71 | |
10-year real yield (TIPS) The 10-year yield after expected inflation. The discount rate that matters for long-duration assets. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED (DFII10) | 2.60% | -0.04 pp | -0.31 pp | +0.78 pp | 99 |
Fear, dollar, oil
| Indicator | Current | Daily change | Monthly change | Yearly change | 1-year trend | 10-year range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX Expected S&P 500 swings over the next 30 days. Above about 25 is fear. Cboe Global Markets, via FRED (VIXCLS) | 28.18 | +69.7% | +86.9% | +40.9% | 92 | |
US dollar, trade-weighted A strong dollar tightens borrowing worldwide. Fed broad index (H.10). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via FRED (DTWEXBGS) | 121.67 | -0.1% | +0.6% | +0.9% | 81 | |
WTI crude oil Feeds into inflation. Spikes squeeze consumers. U.S. Energy Information Administration, via FRED (DCOILWTICO) | $99.64 | -0.4% | +3.7% | +62.4% | 95 |
Yields show changes in percentage points; everything else in percent. Sources: the U.S. Department of the Treasury (daily par yield curve) and, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10, H.15), the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Cboe Global Markets (VIX, reprinted by FRED with permission). FRED series carry a one-day publication lag. Research and educational content only, not investment advice. No signal, no recommendation, nothing here says buy or sell.